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A confluence of factors has complicated the health care workforce picture. The field’s workforce is aging, patient demand for services is rising and so is the need for more nurses and physicians.

Add in the high levels of stress and burnout many clinicians report feeling and the financial pressures many providers face, and some experts believe it’s time to take a fresh look at strategic workforce planning. Count Kunal Khashu, a digital transformation leader at HCA Healthcare, among them.

When hospitals and health systems combine predictive analytics, decision-support systems and automation, they can optimize staffing, cut costs and improve outcomes, Khashu argues in a recent .

3 Steps to Strategic Workforce Planning

Here are key steps Khashu recommends for addressing mounting health care workforce challenges now and in the future.

1 | Develop a data-driven understanding of workforce demand at the facility level.

Assess patient volumes and acuity trends. Analyze which departments are seeing consistent surges. Higher-acuity patients often require more specialized staff, Khashu notes. Likewise, analyzing seasonal surges and local demographics can yield granular staffing needs data for situations like flu season, tourist influxes or aging local populations.

Takeaway

After gathering data, AI-powered demand forecasting can predict patient volumes by analyzing historical trends and real-time inputs. “To ensure accuracy and actionability, organizations should establish a robust data governance framework, standardizing data inputs, regularly validating model outputs and involving cross-functional teams to interpret forecasts in the context of operational realities,” Khashu writes.

2 | Identify workforce gaps and risks.

With data in hand on where workforce demand is heading, analyze the existing workforce supply to identify gaps and risks. Key workforce metrics to track include:

• Turnover and retirement risks. High turnover or an aging workforce can create skill vacuums, especially in critical specialties like intensive care units (ICUs), oncology or surgical services. Monitor turnover rates by department and age demographics to forecast retirement waves.
• Skills inventory. Assess the competencies of your current workforce to identify skill vacuums in critical areas like ICUs, oncology or surgical services. Monitor departmental turnover rates and age demographics to forecast anticipated retirement waves.
• Productivity and utilization rates. Establish baseline nurse-to-patient ratios by specialty. Identify where ratios are skewed whether due to understaffing or misallocation and balance workloads to maximize care quality and staff sustainability.

Takeaway

AI-powered analytics can identify employees at elevated risk of leaving, enabling leaders to adopt proactive retention strategies. Skills-based talent mapping ensures that staff are matched to roles based on their competencies.

Additionally, scenario-based workforce planning allows organizations to simulate the impact of retirements or resignations, ensuring preparedness and staffing stability. Khashu urges including human resources, clinical leadership and finance teams early in the process to define realistic assumptions, align on risk thresholds and embed insights into ongoing talent strategy and succession planning.

3 | Adopt strategic interventions to balance workforce supply and demand.

After developing a clear understanding of workforce gaps, take actionable steps to close them.

• Employ smarter, predictive hiring practices. Using AI-driven tools, forecast staffing needs and actively cultivate partnerships with schools to build a strong talent pipeline in areas where there is an identified supply/demand gap.
• Address upskilling and internal mobility. Put cross-training initiatives in place to help employees adapt to workforce shifts.
• Augment staff efficiency. With optimized staff-to-patient ratios and AI-driven chatbots reducing administrative workloads, redirect freed-up capacity toward high-impact tasks such as patient engagement or mentoring junior staff.

Takeaway

Strategic workforce planning isn’t a one-and-done exercise, Khashu concludes. It needs continuous refinement based on real-time data that requires continuous monitoring and adjustments. Workforce key performance indicators, such as time-to-fill, turnover rates, labor costs per patient visit and patient satisfaction scores, help assess staffing effectiveness and its impact on care quality. Organizations can track these metrics through real-time dashboards and conduct regular reviews to ensure proactive workforce management.

Learn More

The AHA’s "Strengthening the Health Care Workforce" report provides strategies for current, near- and long-term needs. The report, developed under the guidance of the AHA Board of Trustees’ Task Force on Workforce and with input from many members of the AHA, will help hospitals navigate workforce challenges and opportunities, as well as highlight strategies and resources to assist on these pivotal efforts.